A third party candidate will not guarantee Obama's victory

A third party candidate will not guarantee Obama's victory because Obama is also at odds with Democrats. While the Conservatives will definitely be split between the GOP and a third decent party, the Democrats can also be split between Obama and the third party guy. If the GOP candidate is a "health-care regulating, pro-abortion, flip-flopping, liberal, phony, RINO stiff", Conservatives will be hard pressed to vote for him in good conscience and conscientious Democrats will see no difference between him and Obama.